Another misconception I've been carrying around for years has been dispelled this evening. I have to wonder how much other stuff that's in my head is just not entirely correct?
Card counting. I'd never had card counting explained to me, and I'd never bothered to look up how to do it (as I thought I knew what it was). All I knew was that it was called "card counting" and that it allowed you to get an advantage whilst playing blackjack in a casino. I had assumed that it was a very simple method: namely that card counters just remember every card that has been dealt from the deck, and hence know what hasn't been dealt yet, and hence be able to guess what the approximate odds were at any time.
If I met a card counter I'd assumed I could ask them what had been dealt and they'd say "4 of hearts, 3 of diamonds, king of hearts, queen of spades..." etc. Whilst I know that there are (weird) people out there with the memory skills to actually do this, it always seemed odd that this would be a common way to try and beat the casinos.
And I left it at that.
Tonight I've just watched a TV programme on telly about the card counters. And it turns out card counting is much much simpler than that. Simple enough that I could probably have a go at it if I wanted to. Here is a very very simple guide to card counting (note: other methods also exist):
1. Start a running total in your head. Start at 0, it's a very good place to start.
2. Every time a 2,3,4,5 or 6 is dealt, add 1 to your total.
3. Every time a 10, J, Q, K or A is dealt, subtract 1 from your total.
4. Don't lose track of your total.
5. Kind of play normally and sensibly, but cunningly bet more at appropriate times when your total is positive.
6. Still keep track of your total though.
I have a feeling step 5 may be the important one to actually win money. Which is a shame because step 1 is dead easy and I've got it down to a tee. Watch: 0! Easy!
I expect I'll be beating the casinos in no time.
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2 comments:
When you mentioned card counting, this is indeed what I thought you meant. The problem is that it doesn't make enough of a difference -- the cards need to go very skewed to make any sort of difference, a percent or so. The more packs in the shoe and the less use it is too (as you should know).
It's actually better to spend time learning the probablilities behind how to play the game, i.e. when you should twist, hold, double and split.
FYI, I spent my youth learning the theory of gambling (via The Encyclopaedia Britannica of all things) which I used to do rather well! I have forgotten a lot of it though.
Counting is still sufficient to give you an edge though, even if it is only a percent. Winning lots of money is then just a case of playing long enough with sensible basic strategy (as you suggest).
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