The winner of the 2004 Mercury Music Prize is announced today. I haven't been in the habit of making predictions on these pages, which may seem strange given that actuaries tend to do that sort of thing for a living, at least where it involves finance. However, I'm feeling lucky today, so here's my analysis of the contenders. Remember: This is to pick the "album of the year", and just in case you're worried that I have insider knowledge, let me assure you that I don't. Honestly, I don't. I barely have any outsider knowledge.
I'm going to rate their winning chances with either *, ** or *** where *** is "Good chance" and * is "no chance". ** is "a middling chance".
Amy Winehouse - Frank *
Basement Jaxx - Kish Kash *
Belle & Sebastian - Dear Catastrophe Waitress **
Franz Ferdinand - Franz Ferdinand **
Jamelia - Thank You *
Joss Stone - The Soul Sessions **
Keane - Hopes and Fears **
Robert Wyatt - Cuckooland **
Snow Patrol - Final Straw ***
The Streets - A Grand Don't Come for Free ***
Ty - Upwards *
The Zutons - Who Killed...... The Zutons **
I'd thought about writing about each album individually. But since I haven't heard half of them, that could be slightly biased. And I've never been sure what criteria the Mercury judges use to vote, but I am fairly sure it has nothing to do with what I like. Despite this, I am thinking that this year we will be in tune somewhat so I think that it's between Snow Patrol and The Streets. The bookies disagree slightly, they currently think it's between Franz Ferdinand (who are 5/2 favourites) and The Streets.
If I'm forced to jump off The Fence, I'll go with The Streets to win.
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3 comments:
Lets hope its not Belle and Sebastian. I think Amy Winehouse may win, but then I know nothing
I'd love Belle and Sebastian to win, but realistically I just can't see it happening. Mind you, I was quite surprised that they made the shortlist in the first place, even though Dear Catastrophe Waitress is a great album.
I think they may have had their one and only mainstream award back when they beat Steps to get Best Newcomer at The Brits some years back. That was funny. Especially as it was around the time of their third album or so.
Ok, so Franz Ferdinand won, and my prediction did not work out correctly. Very unusual for one of the favourites to win though.
I should know better than to even attempt to predict the Mercury.
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